A grocery receipt from 2019 would look rather strange beside one from the same supermarket in 2026.

Imagine a family that spent $150 on a regular shopping basket seven years ago. Buying the equivalent basket at September 2026’s average grocery price level would cost roughly $200. The family has not necessarily bought more food. Prices have changed.

In September 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported grocery prices 1.8% higher than twelve months earlier. But since September 2019, the food-at-home price index has risen approximately 33.2%. A slower annual increase has not reversed seven years of increases.

Yet American average hourly wages have also risen, by slightly more than grocery prices. Why does shopping still feel so expensive?

American Wages Have Actually Kept Up With Grocery Prices

I examined the historical wage figures expecting food prices to have comfortably outpaced paychecks. They did not.

Average private-sector hourly earnings increased from $28.16 in September 2019 to $37.81 in September 2026, approximately 34.3%. The grocery-price index rose 33.2% over those same months.

An hour of average private-sector earnings could therefore buy slightly more of the CPI grocery basket than it could in 2019. For production and nonsupervisory employees, average hourly earnings grew from $23.68 to $32.60, approximately 37.7%.

But national averages do not track the same workers through time. Changes in the workforce can affect them. Hourly earnings are also not take-home income, and they do not reveal whether a worker lost paid hours.

Someone whose wages barely changed may have lost significant purchasing power. Another worker who earned several raises may now afford a bigger basket.

Sources: BLS average private hourly earnings, production and nonsupervisory earnings and food-at-home CPI.

The Supermarket Is Competing With the Rent

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its 2025 Consumer Expenditure Survey on October 29, 2026. Consumer units spent an estimated average $6,491 on food purchased for home consumption that year, about $541 monthly. Average housing spending was $27,790.

Housing accounted for 33.9% of total expenditure, compared with 13% for all food, including restaurant meals. From 2024 to 2025, average housing spending rose 5.8% and food spending 4.6%. These are spending changes, not inflation rates. Families may move or buy different quantities.

A worker who recovers grocery purchasing power may still have less left after housing and other essential bills. A retired couple and a family with three children also have different needs.

The 2025 survey has a limitation: the federal funding lapse interrupted collection during October and November, and BLS adjusted its weights for missing responses. Source: BLS Consumer Expenditures 2025.

A Higher Grocery Bill Hurts Some Families Much More

USDA research shows how food occupies different shares of household resources. In 2024, the lowest-income fifth spent an average $5,498 on all food, including meals out. That was 33% of the group’s average before-tax income.

Middle-income households spent $9,097, or 12.2% of average income. The highest-income fifth spent $16,989, but that represented only 6.4%. These ratios compare group averages, not each household’s own budget percentage.

A $30 addition at checkout may barely alter a high earner’s plans. A household with little room to spare may delay another purchase, change products or eat less. Lower spending does not always mean improved affordability.

The Federal Reserve’s 2025 household survey found that 73% of adults said they were doing okay financially or living comfortably. Yet 53% identified price increases as a major concern, down from 56% in 2024, and 16% said they had not paid all their bills in the previous month.

Sources: USDA food prices and spending and Federal Reserve household well-being report.

Did Supermarkets Use Inflation to Increase Their Profits?

A large grocery receipt raises fair questions about the companies that sell food. The evidence is less simple than blaming supermarket profits for every increase.

In March 2024, the Federal Trade Commission found that food and beverage retailers’ revenues exceeded total costs by more than 6% in 2021 and by approximately 7% during the first three quarters of 2023. The agency raised concerns that some companies increased prices beyond their own cost increases, and found that large purchasers enjoyed advantages during shortages.

The FTC’s measure is not a conventional net profit margin, nor did its investigation establish that every retailer raised prices beyond its input costs.

Albertsons reported about $83.17 billion in fiscal 2025 sales and other revenue, with approximately $728 million in operating income, less than 1% of revenue. That does not prove the prices of particular goods were competitive. Equally, it does not support a blanket claim of enormous current supermarket operating margins.

Food manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers earn different margins. Corporate pricing decisions mattered during the pandemic disruption, but the available figures do not assign every dollar of the seven-year increase to profits.

Sources: FTC grocery supply-chain investigation and Albertsons SEC filing.

Does Supermarket Concentration Matter?

USDA research found that the twenty largest food retailers accounted for 65.2% of food sales through major grocery retail channels in 2022, a much larger share than in the late 1990s.

Large companies can negotiate favorable terms and run efficient distribution systems, sometimes lowering consumer costs. Yet concentration may limit choices where there are few competitors. A national share alone does not prove that a given store is overcharging.

Source: USDA retail trends.

Food Prices Do Not Depend on Farmers Alone

Wheat is only part of a loaf of bread’s price. Processing, packaging, wages and transport all contribute. Lower wheat prices may not deliver an equivalent reduction at the checkout.

The USDA Food Dollar Series traces the money spent on food through production and other supply-chain activities. It helps explain why changing farm commodity prices do not automatically restore old retail prices.

Why Slower Inflation Still Feels Like High Inflation

Return to the $150 grocery basket. After a 33.2% cumulative increase, its equivalent cost is roughly $200. Another 1.8% annual rise makes it dearer again. It does not restore the 2019 bill.

This is disinflation: prices rise more slowly. Deflation means prices fall. Overall US consumer inflation was 3.7% in September 2026, even as annual grocery inflation was 1.8%. The different parts of a family’s budget were not changing at the same rate.

A similar distinction appears in our earlier analysis of why falling inflation in Pakistan did not immediately lower household prices. Lower annual inflation describes a slower increase, not a return to the previous price level.

Source: BLS Consumer Price Index, September 2026.

The Grocery Receipt Cannot Measure the Whole Household

Average American hourly earnings rose slightly faster than grocery prices between September 2019 and September 2026. That fact belongs in any fair account.

It does not mean every household’s food became easier to afford. Income differs; working hours change. The cost of housing competes for the same money.

Food absorbs a much larger portion of resources in lower-income households. Many Americans report that they are financially comfortable, while others remain worried about prices and unpaid bills. A supermarket prints the same price for both. It cannot show what either family must give up to pay it.